Global conflicts: Turbulent times

Dr Inderjit Singh, a global aviation consultant and former CEO of Indira Gandhi International Airport, considers the impact global conflicts have on the aviation industry.

In this article I plan to leverage my expertise and doctoral research in international relations to explore how rising geopolitical tensions are reshaping air travel in 2025.

THE GEOPOLITICAL STORM FACING AVIATION

The global aviation industry in 2025 is navigating a perfect storm of challenges: supply chain disruptions, rising fuel prices, skilled labour shortages, mounting environmental concerns, increasing maintenance costs, cyber threats, and escalating insurance premiums. Yet, geopolitical instability stands out as the most disruptive force.

Aviation has always been closely tied to geopolitics. As a global connector of commerce, diplomacy, and tourism, air travel is vulnerable to the tremors of territorial disputes, cross-border tensions, and political conflict.

THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT OF CONFLICT ON AVIATION

Global conflicts impact aviation at every level. Operational costs in the conflict zones increase flight durations due to re-routing, pushing up fuel usage, and logistical complexity of crew scheduling.

Higher operational expenses inevitably lead to increased fares, subsequently lowering passenger numbers and revenue. Airlines thus experience considerable revenue losses due to decreased passenger volumes, cancelled flights, and interrupted cargo services.

Due to heightened risk levels the insurance premium rise significantly, causing premiums to soar 20–30% in high-tension regions.

The unpredictable nature of geopolitical events, and instability lead to delays in capital investments in airport infrastructure upgrades, new aircraft, and route expansions.

Most critically, passenger safety perceptions and confidence plummet during times of conflict, leading airlines to sacrifice profits to avoid reputational and safety risks. Even a single incident can shatter traveller trust and permanently damage airline reputations.

AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS: A COSTLY DETOUR

One of the most immediate consequences of geopolitical strife is airspace closures. Whether due to diplomatic sanctions, military action, or safety advisories, these restrictions force detours that translate directly into longer flights, higher costs, and operational chaos.

Conflicts often disrupt the supply of critical components and resources for aircraft manufacturing and maintenance, leading to production delays and increased costs.

Aviation is a recognised pivotal global infrastructure, enabling economic growth, and cultural exchange. However, rising geopolitical tensions, are increasingly disrupting global air travel.

Here is my analysis of the substantial impact recent global conflicts, territorial disputes and political instability have had on air travel, providing detailed data-driven insights, examining economic repercussions, and exploring strategic responses.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR (2022–PRESENT)

The war between Russia and Ukraine has significantly disrupted air travel and altered global flight patterns.

Western nations banned Russian carriers from their airspace, and in retaliation, Russia restricted access to its skies for numerous carriers. This has led to re-routed long-haul flights between Europe and Asia, forcing airlines to fly further north or south, resulting in increased fuel burn and travel times and decreased per flight profitability.

Data from Eurocontrol demonstrates that re-routing due to the conflict increased average European flight times by approximately 7%, has had an impact on more than one million annual flights, and more than $2.25 billion annually in additional fuel and operational expenses. Eastern

European passenger traffic dropped by approximately 20% during 2022-2023. Reportedly, several Ukrainian airports have been severely damaged or rendered inoperable.

MIDDLE EAST INSTABILITY

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran, Israel, and neighbouring nations, have led to airspace closures and restricted flight corridors.

During heightened tensions between the US and Iran in early 2020, airlines were advised to avoid Iranian airspace due to potential security threats. The war in Yemen has also led to restricted air routes over the Arabian Peninsula, affecting Gulf carriers significantly.

The net result was additional annual airlines cost of approximately $1.2 billion due to rerouting, a decline in regional passenger numbers by 15% during peak conflict periods, and an increase in aviation insurance premiums ranging between 20-30%.

NORTH KOREA

Due to North Korea’s unpredictable history of frequent missile tests and lack of international aviation transparency, most airlines avoid North Korean DPRK airspace entirely. This has made East Asian flight planning more complex, requiring strategic re-routes to ensure passenger safety.

AFGHANISTAN (POST 2021 TALIBAN TAKEOVER)

In Central Asia, following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, many airlines ceased flights over Afghan airspace due to security uncertainties. This affected flight routes between Europe and South Asia, leading to detours that increased operational costs.

SOUTH CHINA SEA & EAST CHINA SEA

The South China Sea and East China Sea in the Asia-Pacific Region have witnessed escalating territorial disputes involving China, Japan, Vietnam, and Philippines.

Such conflicts have significantly impacted crucial aviation corridors, prompting airlines to adopt alternative flight paths to ensure safety.

Around 500,000 flights get impacted on an annual basis, causing an operational cost increase of around $1 billion, and approximately 10% decrease in passenger traffic during periods of conflict.

SYRIA (2011–PRESENT)

The Syrian Civil War has significantly impacted regional air travel, leading to the suspension of numerous airlines’ operations in affected airspaces.

Re-routing of flights has resulted in operational disruptions and substantial cost increases. Major airports in Syria have severely been damaged or destroyed.

SOUTH ASIA 2025: A NEW FLASHPOINT

In April 2025, a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, claimed the lives of 26 tourists. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-based terror groups, launching retaliatory airstrikes, triggering a regional military escalation – the worst in 30 years.

Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian carriers, which prompted India to reciprocate by banning Pakistani carriers. These closures forced numerous major international airlines, including Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways, and Singapore Airlines, to re-route flights to avoid the conflict zone.

western regions, including major hubs like Amritsar and Srinagar, leading to the cancellation of over 430 flights.

The airspace closures and re-routed flights resulted in substantial financial losses for airlines. Indian carriers alone faced an estimated annual loss of approximately $840 million due to increased fuel costs, longer flight paths, and operational challenges.

The conflict’s impact extended beyond South Asia, affecting global aviation routes. Flights from the UK to Asia experienced delays of up to four hours due to the combined effect of avoiding both Pakistani and Russian airspaces. Passengers faced missed connections, extended travel times, and increased ticket prices.

Despite a temporary ceasefire agreement on May 10, 2025, reports of ongoing drone attacks and retaliatory responses persist.

THE WAY FORWARD: GLOBAL CO-ORDINATION AND RESILIENCE

As geopolitical risks become a defining feature of modern aviation, a co-ordinated global response is essential.

Governments, airlines, airport operators, and international bodies must collaborate to enhance threat detection through real-time intelligence sharing and develop alternative routes and simulate crisis scenarios.

Further, we ought to implement smart air traffic management to optimise re-routes, minimise disruptions, and strengthen airport security especially in known volatile regions.

A CALL FOR ACTION

Terrorism continues to target the core values of freedom, democracy, and human dignity. It destabilises governments, violates human rights, and directly threatens global aviation.

Beyond defence, the fight against violent extremism requires multilateral co-operation, community engagement, academic and religious dialogue, and, most importantly, responsible media narratives.

MY TAKE – THE NEW NORMAL

Among the political, military, and civil-aviation leadership we need an intense desire and determination to end this menace of cross-border terrorism at its very roots, from where it emanates; including those who plan and glorify such events.

We must recognise that geopolitical dynamics no longer impact isolated regions/territories, as the connectivity impact of aviation has transcended the notion of finite and distinct boundaries, leading to event driven pan world consequences.

The international community needs not just preachers of peace but committed partners ready to act decisively to mitigate global impact.

The idea that war brings peace is a common saying, often used in political and military contexts. It suggests that war can, at times, be a necessary means to achieve a lasting peace.

At home, the US government responded to the 9/11 attacks by creating the Department of Homeland Security and introducing a range of security measures at airports that have since become the global template for successfully implementing security measures.

It is an unfortunate reality that geopolitical tensions are a part of our lives that require us to be aware and better prepared going forward.

The aviation industry is not just about moving people – it is about connecting economies, cultures, and civilisations, therefore protecting it from the ripple effects of conflict is no longer optional, it is vital.

About the author

Dr Inderjit Singh is an aviation consultant and former CEO of Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi, India. He can be contacted at inderjit.singh@aviationanalyst.net or indi279@gmail.com