Planning for vertical take-offs

OAG’s chief analyst, John Grant, considers the potential opportunities and challenges of eVTOL aircraft and how the aviation sector might adapt to meet the new trend.

The aviation industry is about to embark on a transformative period of technological change as it strives to meet its net zero targets within the next two decades. While there is no silver bullet solution that can do this, a series of small steps can lead to marginal advances until eventually – and perhaps surprisingly – we reach our destination.

While much attention has been focused on biofuels and alternative sources of energy such as hydrogen and batteries, the hype around battery-powered aircraft is currently declining.

The use of single-aisle aircraft, specifically A320XLR, for long-haul flights is a recent development. This has enabled secondary markets to be connected directly without the need for a hub airport. Next year, Qantas hope to launch their flagship non-stop services from Sydney to London and New York on the back of advanced aircraft technology. Furthermore, the introduction of electrical vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft is just beginning.

Because of this, there is significant attention within the industry surrounding Advanced Air Mobility, which leads us to question as to what this means for the future in the aviation sector.

The latest developments in the United States have revealed that the certification process for eVTOL services is making significant progress. Commercial operations are anticipated to begin by 2025, although the exact launch date is still unclear.

But before that first service there is a whole list of issues to be addressed. From a planning perspective, it is crucial to overcome these operational challenges. So how could this all play out?

Over the last decade, the initial concept of eVTOL’s hasn’t really changed. These aircrafts are designed to fly relatively short distances that could either connect a network of satellite locations around a major city with direct speed access to that city’s hub, or perhaps to a central location in the city such as Piccadilly Circus in Central London.

In other words, there appear to be two immediate use cases for eVTOLs. The first involves connecting small communities to major airport networks, and the second consists in replacing existing air services with a more environmentally friendly option.

It’s important to note that no eVTOL has yet been certified for commercial passenger use. However, there are several manufacturers predominantly based in North America, that are well advanced in their certification processes.

At first eVTOLs are expected to be used in search and rescue, disaster relief and the rapid distribution of emergency supplies. Once the concept has been proven, then there is no doubt about the opportunities and potential impact of eVTOLs in commercial aviation.

In Dubai, progress is being made on the development of an eVTOL taxi launch by 2027. Similar developments are also underway in and around the West Coast of the US through an agreement between Uber and Joby Aviation.

Initially, these plans are centred around the creation of ‘vertiports’, which will cater to the wealthy who need to get around heavily congested road systems. It’s inevitable that some of those vertiports are going to be at or very close to airports.

Indeed, the question is, will they be airside or landside, and if landside, will they be located close to the main passenger terminals or, more likely, the general aviation facilities?

It’s important to note that eVTOL taxis or charter services will only serve a very small percentage of those passengers arriving at airports and are not going to help when airports are reviewing their surface access strategies. Nonetheless, for airlines, this small percentage of passengers can be a highly profitable market.

UA Ventures, a subsidiary of United Airlines, has invested $15 million in Eve Air Mobility to order up to 200 air taxis that are capable of carrying a maximum of four passengers distances of up to 60 miles. The company has also received letters of intent from markets such as Kenya and Singapore, where linkages to the national airlines can be traced.

As one of the major players in the US, United Airlines has several major hub bases across the US, which means that more than 200 taxis may be required once the concept is validated, and demand builds up. The potential return relative to the investment and the advanced sustainability credentials that can be generated have all been considered by United Airlines and clearly make sense, but it remains a niche product and leads us to question, how financially viable is the real future of eVTOLs?

Despite the advancements made so far, there is little indication of a genuine eVTOL aircraft that could offer a 50-seat capacity and operate a range of up to 100 miles. While this could encourage a migration away from more conventional aircraft operations. In the United States alone, there are over 350 airport pairs currently operated that are less than 100 miles apart, some of which are operated by B737 aircraft such as Madison–Chicago O’Hare by both American and United Airlines. If an EVTOL aircraft is developed, it could create numerous opportunities for future operation not only in the US but also in places such as the Caribbean, Greek Islands, Scandinavia and even the United Kingdom, there are numerous opportunities for future operation.

One of the main features of eVTOLS is not just its carbon saving ability, but its vertical take-off ability, which could significantly impact future airport capacity requirements.

Airport planning has traditionally focused on future capacity, particularly regarding runway availability. However, eVTOLs could alleviate some pressure on airport capacity by using their vertical take-off capability from remote locations at airfields. Yet, for this to succeed, any such developments must be carefully considered and assessed.

While VTOLs will not in themselves eradicate the need for more new runaway capacity, in some locations, if a few peak hour slots that were used for sub-100-mile services could be released by EVTOL operations, that has to be a practical resource reallocation.

Quite how much thinking is taking place in this area is unclear but judging by the number of conferences now scheduled, it’s a big subject area, for conference organisers at least.

As for the implications for OAG, we’re not expecting to see a dramatic increase in the number of locations seeking an airport code because of eVTOL developments, although we continue to watch that possibility closely. We are, however, expecting that in the coming years, some enlightened airlines will bring scheduled eVTOL services into their schedules and that we will need to add additional ‘aircraft’ codes and seating configurations to our databases; we’ve been doing that sort of thing for years so will be ready when ready. In aviation, things can change unexpectedly and alter all of your plans, no matter how well-prepared you are.

Ultimately, the aviation sector is dynamic because of the innovation it enables and currently with all the advancements we have seen, I expect an incredibly exciting future.