Tales of the unexpected
Richard Plenty and Terri Morrissey reflect on the challenges of planning for the future in such uncertain times.
Many years ago, we were working with the CEO of an under-pressure organisation and suggested that he should spend more time thinking about the future.
“Perhaps it would be a good idea to paint a picture to your leadership team of how you see the next five to ten years?” we asked in the style of well-intended management consultants. “The next ten years?”, he retorted. “I’ve no idea what’s going to happen on Monday!”
That leader now seems to have been ahead of his time. Fast forward to the present, and we are living in a world where it has become difficult, if not impossible, for anyone to predict the future with any degree of certainty.
Recent world events have provided a backdrop of unpredictability – geo-political conflicts, tariffs, supply chains, COVID, climate change, AI – and created many possible futures and options. It’s a world where one of the most oft repeated phrases is “that’s too uncertain to call”.
Whatever way we react personally to uncertainty, none of us can wish it away. Some people find uncertainty makes them anxious, others enjoy the buzz from having to think on their feet, but all of us have to deal with situations where the facts are unclear, the environment is rapidly changing and where the outcomes of any course of action are far from assured.
We are faced with dilemmas that don’t have simple solutions and where ‘it all depends’ is the general answer, for example:
- Action or Patience. Is it best to make a quick decision and move on – or wait a bit longer until the fog lifts, and risk missing the boat?
- Planning or Improvisation. Detailed planning becomes very difficult when things are unpredictable. Should we instead ‘muddle along’ and improvise as events unfold?
- Intuition or Logic. Relying on ‘gut instinct’ to produce the right solution is simpler and quicker than trying to apply logic. But how can we be sure that our intuition is not flawed and biased?
- Persistence or Changing Course. There are no guarantees that if we continue with a course of action, we will get the outcomes we want. Still, there can be rewards for perseverance – and changing course mid-flight can lead to confusion
- Past, present or future. History can provide valuable insights. However, what worked in the past may not work so well in the future. And how should we balance the demands of the ‘here and now’ with thinking through future scenarios?
While the best response to these dilemmas is contingent on circumstances and context, we have come up with a framework to help us plan ahead in times of uncertainty , the Richmor Model – https://www.all-about-psychology.com/uncertainty-rules.html – published by Cork University Press/Atrium in 2020.
The Richmor model provides a systematic way of helping us to check that our objectives, strategies and plans still make sense in the light of changing and uncertain circumstances, and whether we need to consider different ways of meeting our strategic objectives. There are four steps:
- Reflect. Carve out time to understand the situation and clarify our strategic objectives
- Strategise. Review the options we have (usually more than we think) to achieve our goals
- Explore. Explore each option, working out – in so far as we can – the consequences of each
- Act Decisively. Decide on the best option – and act boldly in a way aligned with our values.
In times of uncertainty, it is usually better to stop and think rather than act impetuously or blithely continue with what we have been doing.
There is a lot of truth in the wisdom of the ages – ‘Take a deep breath and count to ten’, ‘Don’t put all your eggs in one basket’ and ‘Look before you leap’!
About the authors
Terri Morrissey and Dr Richard Plenty run ACI’s Human Resources training. They received a Presidential Citation from the American Psychological Association in June 2022 for their leadership in advancing global psychology. Contact them at info@thisis.eu
Arrivals and Departures
London Gatwick will have a new chief executive for the next phase of its journey after announcing that VINCI Airport’s Pierre-Hugues Schmit will succeed Stewart Wingate in September. Wingate, who has held the top job at LGW for 15 years, will take up the new role of managing director of UK Airports for VINCI Airports and Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) in the autumn. Schmit is currently chief commercial and operational officer at VINCI Airports and a non-executive director on the London Gatwick Board.
Elsewhere in the UK, Edinburgh Airport has appointed Stephanie Wear as its new chief commercial officer, replacing Gail Taylor who has joined Sydney Airport as its new commercial project director.
Columbus Regional Airport Authority president and CEO, Joseph Nardone, has announced his intention to retire and will step aside when a successor is found.